KAWABUNGA!!!!

Wipeout!! in the Texas elections. (part one of two)

For this story I suggest the following background music.

Recent elections have yielded startling results. In 2025, 8 different state legislative special elections resulted in a party change, all from Republican to Democrat. Then in 2026 the pace quickened….

First in Minnesota on January 28, in two races for heavily Democratic seats, it was not surprising that both Democrats won easily (one had no opponent). The surprise were the margins. Meg Luger-Nikolai won House District 64A with 95% of the vote while her Republican opponent got only 4.4%.

Three days later, Taylor Rehmet flipped Texas Senate District 9, winning 57.2% with a 21.0% wave.

One week later on February 7, Chasity Martinez (D) beat Brad Daigle (R) in the Louisiana 60th House District with 61.9% of the vote in a district Trump took by 13% in 2024. This was a 24.9% wave.

Finally, in Arkansas last week, Alex Holladay (D) beat Bryan Renshaw (R) 69.5% to 30%. Just 2 years ago Renshaw won it the seat 51% to 49%. This was yet another 21% Democratic swing.

The Republican pundits all gave the predictable “a small special election race with local interests and issues does not match the electorate as a mass” explanation. In Minnesota they added, a partisan reaction to ICE and the assassinations of Democratic leaders…. but

Then came the Texas Primary. A mass election. This is the perfect, political petri dish election to check if this wave we’re seeing is local effects or real. What are the results?

In 2024, 1,047,553 Texans voted in the Democratic Primary verses 2,335,041 in the Republican primary. That’s 30.9% Democratic verses 69.0% Republican. Last week 2,311,826 Texans voted in the Democratic primary verses 2,165,744 (51.6% Democratic verses 48.3% Republican). This amounts to a 20.6% wave.

As mentioned before, the 2024 election is not a good model for many reasons. The test is using that election as the basis to predict the current partisanship breakdown of the Texas House and Senate, SBOE (State Board of Education) and Congress. Using 2024 results doesn’t predict the current elected breakdown. Basing the model on a mix of 2022 results is a better comparison, hitting the current party breakdowns exactly. So let’s base the our prediction on the 2022 election.

In 2022, 1,099,638 Democrats (35.8%) voted to compared to 1,971,022 Republicans (64.1%). The 51.6% Democratic vote for the 2026 primary is a 15.8% wave. I like 2024’s 20.6%, but I trust 2022’s 15.8% much more.

What does a 15.8% mean? Let’s plug it into the model.

The results are startling. First Democrats win all the statewide races by over 16%. Texas House Representative Gina Hinojosa becomes Governor Hinojosa by a 20 point margin. Senator Talarico flies by with almost a 22% victory. The Democrats would hold 70% of the seats (107) in the Texas House, take control of the Senate and SBOE and gain an impossible sounding 20 US Congressional seats, resulting in a 33 to 5 Congressional delegation (notice by the way that the Republicans would have kept 6 more seats without the gerrymander… The Democrats did win the 2025 gerrymandering).

This isn’t a wave, it’s a tsunami.

Now I admit I am skeptical. I’ve been saying a 6, 7 or 8 point wave for a few months while others have postulated higher. I’m stubborn enough to stick to my initial stance. I’m already seeing signs of the sort of Democratic self-destruction that occurs whenever the Democrats have a chance. Headlines like “It's Time to Launch Centrist and Corporate Democrats Into the Sun” and “I wish the Progressives would just grow up" are popping out. There are enormous internal fights brewing in both Harris and Travis County parties which threaten unity. Sometimes I feel like the Texas Democrats never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

If we can keep it together, we have the chance at 15.8% Let’s keep our eyes on the prize.

So in part 2, Let’s look at this tsunami in detail.